Crude oil fell for a fourth day, dropping below US$54 to its lowest in 22 months, on expectations U.S. inventories gained last week as fuel demand in the world’s largest user declined. Stockpiles probably climbed 1 million barrels last week while refinery output is likely to have fallen for a third week, according to the median of analyst estimates before an Energy Department report today. BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, said it will temporarily shutter about 80 factories because of a “massive decline” in demand.

“We see nearly every day now some downward revision in global demand,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “If we see really bad inventory data today, we can go to $45 in one day.”

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as US$1.09, or 2%, to $53.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest since Jan. 23, 2007. It traded at US$53.71 a barrel at 1:18 p.m. London time.

The December future expires tomorrow. The more active January contract was down 86 cents at $52.83 a barrel. Oil has dropped 63% since reaching a record US$147.27 in July. Futures fell 56 cents, or 1%, to US$54.39 a barrel yesterday, the lowest settlement since Jan. 29, 2007. U.S. gasoline purchases fell for a 30th consecutive week, MasterCard Inc. said yesterday. Purchases of gasoline in the U.S. fell 2.8% last week, MasterCard Inc. said in its weekly SpendingPulse statement.